Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]
Por um escritor misterioso
Last updated 18 abril 2025
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://dfzljdn9uc3pi.cloudfront.net/2023/14882/1/fig-3-full.png)
Background Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme. Methods We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species. Results We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S1055790320302451-gr3eg.jpg)
Comparative phylogeographic and demographic analyses reveal a congruent pattern of sister relationships between bird populations of the northern and south-central Atlantic Forest - ScienceDirect
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://dfzljdn9uc3pi.cloudfront.net/2023/14882/1/fig-1-full.png)
Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/figures/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_12_013.png)
Chapter 12: Central and South America Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S1055790320302451-ga1.jpg)
Comparative phylogeographic and demographic analyses reveal a congruent pattern of sister relationships between bird populations of the northern and south-central Atlantic Forest - ScienceDirect
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://www.science.org/cms/10.1126/science.aar5452/asset/251e9dea-08f5-459e-b238-20a070124bee/assets/graphic/361_aar5452_fa.jpeg)
Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://dfzljdn9uc3pi.cloudfront.net/2023/14882/1/fig-2-full.png)
Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://media.springernature.com/m685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs42003-023-04490-1/MediaObjects/42003_2023_4490_Fig3_HTML.png)
Impending anthropogenic threats and protected area prioritization for jaguars in the Brazilian
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/asset/a6df1a4b-b8da-4c97-89dd-227b3e0d0ae2/rspb20141097f02.jpg)
Global variation in thermal tolerances and vulnerability of endotherms to climate change
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://dfzljdn9uc3pi.cloudfront.net/2022/13269/1/fig-1-full.png)
Contrasting patterns from two invasion fronts suggest a niche shift of an invasive predator of native bees [PeerJ]
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2351989420300986-gr1.jpg)
Host-parasite interaction augments climate change effect in an avian brood parasite, the lesser cuckoo Cuculus poliocephalus - ScienceDirect
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://media.springernature.com/m685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41437-023-00662-1/MediaObjects/41437_2023_662_Fig1_HTML.png)
Disentangling the contemporary and historical effects of landscape on the population genomic variation of two bird species restricted to the highland forest enclaves of northeastern Brazil
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S036725302300052X-gr1.jpg)
Conservation challenges to the useful neotropical palm Babaçu (Attalea pindobassu Bondar) in the face of climate change - ScienceDirect
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs13744-022-01006-0/MediaObjects/13744_2022_1006_Fig1_HTML.png)
How Can Climate Change Limit the Distribution of Cooperative Pseudoscorpions in Brazil?
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/b6f15c19-04a7-425f-9ef4-6f5edd29d9dc/ddi13602-fig-0001-m.jpg)
Climate change is expected to restructure forest frugivorous bird communities in a biodiversity hot‐point within the Atlantic Forest - Mota - 2022 - Diversity and Distributions - Wiley Online Library
![Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil [PeerJ]](https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/17/13/i1520-0442-17-13-2667-f05.gif)
Climate Prediction for Brazil's Nordeste: Performance of Empirical and Numerical Modeling Methods in: Journal of Climate Volume 17 Issue 13 (2004)
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