low-probability, high-impact outcomes

There's an interesting Earth System Dynamics Discussion paper presenting a a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WG1 to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Essentially, one can estimate the risk of some outcome by considering the likelihood of that outcome multiplied by the impact of that outcome. This is illustrated…

New tools and methods for High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) event analysis - #SINTEFblog

Probability vs. Impact Matrix - ppt download

A Risk/Impact Probability Chart

New tools and methods for High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) event analysis - #SINTEFblog

Project risk assessment: example with a risk matrix template

2.3 Assess and Manage Risks - PM Illustrated PMP Exam

Intensive and extensive risk

Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines

Discrete Probability Distribution: Overview and Examples